Tag Archives: Box Office
Estimating box office has become very important in Hollywood. They usually know a few weeks or even months in advance how a movie is going to perform. Various sources are used, social media, trend data and trailer views, to name the most common sources. JTA regular 80sRobot posted a few estimates of his own in the comments recently, based solely on YouTube trailer views. A recent study by a tracking company has found that YouTube trailer views are a predictor for box office success, to a certain degree, so this seems like a valid approach. Based on this I thought it might be fun to see if we here on JTA can make our own estimates about the success of The Rise of Skywalker at the box office and took a closer look at YouTube trailer views and box office success. Spoiler: The Rise of Skywalker will most likely perform worse than The Last Jedi. Why? Click through to find out!
How much money will it make?
Deadline reports some early box office tracking numbers for The Rise of Skywalker. This is what they have to say about the opening weekend:
We’ve been hearing for quite some time from exhibitors and distribution sources that advance ticket sales are strong, but not overly robust for Disney/Lucasfilm’s finale Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, meaning in the way that they were for 2015’s Force Awakens ($247.9M) and 2017’s Last Jedi ($220M). Hence, early AM estimates for the J.J. Abrams movie hitting tracking, when averaged are at $205M given the comparative titles provided.
“You want to go see the movie!”
The Hollywood Reporter has released an interesting article about the correlation between YouTube trailer views and box office success on opening weekend. Independent tracking website “Box Office Reports” analyzed data for 421 movies released in the US since 2017 and the Hollywood Reporter looks at the findings in the article.
And according to the findings YouTube trailer views are a good, but not perfect gauge for box office success on opening weekend. The correlation between the trailer views and opening weekend box office is 0.86, which means there is a significant positive correlation between YouTube trailer views and box office (with 0 meaning there is no correlation at all and 1 meaning it’s a perfect positive correlation, 0.86 is a very high correlation). Now the interesting question is: what does that mean for Rise of Skywalker? Trailer views for the movie are rather low. Click through for more!
Website Box Office Pro released their very early and very preliminary box office predictions for The Rise of Skywalker last Friday. And while these numbers are very tentative it’s still worth looking at them and then to see how The Rise of Skywalker is actually trending on Google and YouTube. So click through for a very early outlook on The Rise of Skywalker’s box office success and how the movie is trending one week after the trailer was released! The results are certainly interesting!
Avengers Endgame broke all box office records when it was released. However, 24 days into the release of the movie it becomes obvious that Endgame will not be able to beat the domestic box office results of The Force Awakens. The Force Awakens had very, very strong legs, especially for a modern day blockbuster movie, and Avengers Endgame just can’t keep up. So The Force Awakens will remain the number 1 movie on the domestic alltime box office charts in the USA (unadjusted for inflation). But the story doesn’t end here. Click through for some more thoughts and numbers (and bar charts) about Star Wars at the box office.
Bend Your Knee!
As all of you are aware, Avengers Endgame is opening this weekend. And the movie already had a record breaking $156 million Friday in North America. And while it’s not really that important, I do wonder if Endgame might actually beat The Force Awakens and become the new number 1 movie in the all time domestic box office charts (unadjusted for inflation). Infinity Way also had a better opening weekend than The Force Awakens but eventually ended up making only about 2/3 of The Force Awakens’ box office. So, what do you think? Will Endgame beat The Force Awakens? And… do you think The Rise of Skywalker has any chance at all to beat Endgame and become the number 1 box office hit of 2019? It will be difficult to top Endgame’s opening weekend, that much is certain!
Today I would like to go back in time and take a look at how Star Wars performed at the box office. The franchise is almost 42 years old now, we’ve had 10 live action movies so far, there were ups, there were some downs. And even though comparing box office results from the late 1970s with those of 2018 is not really fair, there are still a lot of things we can look at. So click through for a very comprehensive overview of Star Wars box office performance. Some of the results may even surprise you!
Star Wars fans in 1977 in front of Mann’s Chinese Theatre
Variety reports that box office forecasts for Solo are grim. The movie is projected to make as little as $29 million in North America this weekend. This would be a 66% drop from the opening weekend. And if that trend continues Solo may end up making less than $200 million domestic. The situation abroad is very similar with Solo even struggling in some markets to keep ahead of Deadpool 2. Disney and Lucasfilm now have the first veritable Star Wars box office bomb on their hands.
UPDATE: Box Office Mojo just posted the weekend estimates. Solo will make $29.2 million, only $6 million more than Deadpool 2.
It’s a long way to the bottom
The box office estimates for the Solo Memorial Day opening weekend are in. And they are not pretty. According to Boxoffice Mojo Solo had a 3-day opening weekend of $84.7 million and a 4-day opening weekend of $103 million. Which means Solo is the first live action Star Wars movie ever in danger of becoming a serious flop. What does that mean? What are the reasons? Click through for a discussion!
Cinemascore has released their score for Solo: A Star Wars Story. And it’s an “A-” What that means for Solo’s box office results? Click through to find out more!
While the Memorial Day Weekend still lies ahead, there are already some early numbers for the Thursday screenings of Solo: A Star Wars Story. And they are the lowest numbers for a Disney Star Wars movie yet. Click through for details!
Update: Disney lowers box office prediction for Solo!
Although The Last Jedi has continued to perform well at the US box office, the film collapsed in China and has already been pulled from Chinese theaters. Star Wars has never had a strong foothold in China, the world’s second largest film market, but an already disappointing opening weekend followed by a disastrous second weekend drop of 92% sealed the film’s fate in China. To put things in perspective, The Last Jedi will finish outside of the top 50 in China and behind box office bomb Geostorm. The Hollywood Reporter did a great job of examining the continued failure of Star Wars in China. The problem stems from the well known fact that the original films never received a wide release in China. While franchises such as Fast and Furious focus on ease of access and mindless action, Star Wars films are often driven by nostalgia for and references to the original films. Jimmy Wu, who owns one of the largest theater chains in China, bluntly told The Hollywood Reporter, “Star Wars has no legacy here.” It is an interesting situation, and one that probably has some Disney executives concerned. Check out the full story at The Hollywood Reporter!
After a massive opening weekend and a sharp second weekend drop, the box office performance of The Last Jedi has generated a lot of discussion. How has the film been performing since then? The film has already grossed over one billion dollars worldwide, and Variety reported on Wednesday that it passed Rogue One at the domestic box office. It’s not all good news though. The Last Jedi is latest Star Wars film to underperform in China. According to Variety, the film lost to a Chinese romantic comedy in its debut. The Force Awakens and Rogue One also disappointed at the Chinese box office, where Star Wars doesn’t have a strong foothold. Despite the doom and gloom surrounding the aforementioned second weekend drop, The Last Jedi is performing very well overall and similarly to past Star Wars sequels. In a detailed breakdown of the film’s performance, Forbes revealed that it will likely finish around 30% behind The Force Awakens. Thats nearly identical to The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones, who finished 32% and 28% behind their predocessors respectively.
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