A Concern For The Black Series: Tome Edition
Date: July 05, 2013 at 08:20 PM ET
Topic: Hasbro


JTA is thrilled to welcome Chris Swanski from BanthaSkull.com in the capacity of a guest essayist. He asked if he could share his concerns he has about The Black Series with our readers with a completely analytical overview of why it has an unfair disadvantage at retail among other things. Agree or disagree, be sure to let him know in our comments. We honestly couldn't wait to take him up on his offer. Please read his brilliantly written exposition by clicking through.



The Black Series: Dead on Arrival

Merriam-Webster defines the internet as technology that allows any blowhard with a keyboard to provide domain specific analysis despite a total lack of credentials and expertise. For that reason and despite the fact that I have spent exactly zero days working in either the toy or retail industries, I'm going to tell you why The Black Series is dead at retail before it even starts. Economy of words is a gift I have not been blessed with so feel free to give this a “too long / didn't read” and go back to staining your remote control with Cheetos dust.

The reason why I think the Black Series 3.75” line is doomed to fail at brick and mortar retail is the obvious reason that has been discussed on forums and comment sections alike: the case assortments for the early waves are awful. Poor case assortments has been destroying this line since late 2010 and Hasbro either has either failed to learn from this mistake or is unable to make the appropriate adjustments. Now that I've stated the obvious, it's necessary to establish why the recent brick and mortar landscape has forced Hasbro into a very narrow tolerance for error with their assortment choices.

2008 Happened

I tend to bristle when Hasbro blames the economy for poor success in the line because it presumes they haven't made any mistakes. In reality, the changes to the economic landscape did impact our beloved line. Prior to 2008, the biggest sin in retail was unused shelf space. Every square inch of shelf or peg that wasn't stocked with product was a square inch that wasn't generating sales. After 2008, this wasn't the biggest concern in retail. Illiquidity was the new sin. The credit crunch that supposedly sank viable investment banks sent shock waves to every business. A retail chain having cash tied up in unsold product when debt obligations came due could spell doom when access to credit was dicey. This meant that the amount of on-hand product that would trigger replenishment at retail was getting set lower and lower.

We have all noticed a dichotomy in the Star Wars basic figure line lately. Star Wars figures sell either insanely fast or incredibly slow depending on the offering. In this new landscape, this disparate sale rate is causing the viability of the line to be eroded in an escalating spiral. At my Target stores, the level that triggers replenishment is one less than the number of pegs. With so little showroom space being dedicated to the collector line, one poor selling figure can cripple a store. Without replenishment with the figures that do sell, the sale rate grinds to a halt. When the inventory systems show that the line isn't selling, the next reset will shrink the floor space for the line further reducing the replenishment level. It's a tightening noose that does not stop until the line is completely frozen at some stores. At the Target I visit most frequently, the replenishment level is two figures. They received one case of the Darth Malgus wave this year. Aside from the Darth Maul figure, the Phantom Menace carry forwards ensured it would be the only case this store received this year. Additionally, it’s only the second case this store has received since the final shipment of The Phantom Menace wave in early 2012. Two cases in almost a year and a half. This is almost unthinkable. When this same store got its first shipment of the 2010 Return of the Jedi wave, it received seven cases. From seven cases in a shipment to one case in a year!

The collector and kid lines diverged

Supposedly kids hate articulation. I remember when the swivel arm was introduced to the G.I. Joe line in the 80's and I thought it was a godsend. Clearly I was wrong, because parents are marching daily on Pawtucket to end the scourge of articulated ankles. At its inception, the Legend or Greatest Hits lines sure seemed to be a second chance at retail for hard to find figures. At some point along the way, Hasbro shifted philosophy on the line and it became kid focused line with the main line supposedly being for collectors. Since we’ve started down this road the fork between the two lines has progressively widened.

At first, the Legends line contained figures that were released as recently as the previous year’s main line. Then with the Shadows of the Dark Side line, we started seeing older less articulated figures appearing in the line despite superior tools of those characters being available. Soon came the Phantom Menace 3D line featuring figures that were over a decade old. Now this line features all new limited articulation tooling. What were once two very closely related lines with shared target markets are now two distinct animals both targeting separate audiences.

This means that the character selection and assortment ratio for the collector line has to err on the side of the collector when the kid support is diverted to another line. Hasbro has been unable or unwilling to do this with the collector line. It still has kid sensibilities with accessibility repacks that are meant as an entrance point to the line. Collectors are not going to consume repacks of Qui-Gon Jinn and a Padawan Obi-Wan Kenobi at the same rate they are going to consume a brand new Darth Maul. Also, I have to say it. Collectors, especially hard core collectors, tend to be older. The older set generally prefers the Original Trilogy over the Prequel Trilogy. Now that the lines have forked, this has to be taken into account when setting production levels. This will change when those who grew up with the PT become cranky old collectors with too much disposable income, but that is a few years away.

The secondary market became a primary source

I briefly touched upon the concept of accessibility in the previous section. Any collector line is going to suffer attrition. Collectors are constantly quitting the hobby for a myriad of reasons. If you’re still reading, you’re probably a hardcore collector and have been at this for ten years plus, but other more casual fans drop out of the hunt all the time. Hopefully they are replaced by new blood. In order to attract new blood, a proper entrance point to the hobby is needed. This new blood needs easy access to core characters such as Darth Vader and Luke Skywalker.

While I would never advocate eliminating core characters repacks or rehashes in the basic figure main line, the emergence of the secondary market has scaled back the need to only the most important characters in the saga with near universal appeal. The secondary market has always existed with the modern line, but it has shifted from the hobbyist’s realm to a viable purchasing option on the level of brick and mortar retail. Amazon storefronts make old stock indistinguishable from new stock to the casual buyer. Shoppers looking for an Episode I Obi-Wan Kenobi are not going to sense a difference between the $9.99 Vintage Collection offering and the same figure from the Legacy Collection selling for $2.99 on Amazon.

While this long rambling article is focused on figures, this also goes a long way to answering why the Class II vehicles failed for the Phantom Menace 3D line. Parents are savvy toy shoppers taking full advantage of e-tail. Many of them are not going to pay $30 for a pod racer without a pack-in figure when the Episode I line version can be had for as low as $15 (including shipping) and it comes with a figure. I know Hasbro had no time to generate newly tooled vehicles in advance of the launch because the 3D release was sprung on them too late, but they needed to choose the repacks more carefully taking into account the secondary market. While the pod racers were poor candidates due to their easy and inexpensive availability on the secondary market, something like the Ammo Wagon with Falumpset would have had value to a broader audience plus it sells for nearly the $30 price point with shipping.

Conclusion

So we’re back to why I think the Black Series is doomed. As I hoped to establish, one or two poor selling figures can grind the retail inventory pipeline to a halt. Hasbro hasn’t learned what makes a good assortment ratio for the collector line. There are two figures that worry me could become the Quinlan Vos and Qui-Gon Jinn of 2013. They are Biggs and the Biker Scout. Biggs does have appeal to adult collectors, but it would be about on par with the Dack/Dak Ralter figure from 2010. At that time, Hasbro knew the Ralter figure should be released at one per case with zero carry forward. Biggs is being released at two per case at launch and then carried forward into wave 2. There isn’t enough collector support for that much inclusion in the line especially considering it won’t be helped by the appeal of the Vintage Collection card back (which is gone all too early). Furthermore, the decision makers at Hasbro are not particularly good historians with respect to their product. Biggs Darklighter has been released three times so far: once in the POTF2 Freeze Frame line and twice in the Thirtieth Anniversary Collection (pilot and academy). In all three cases, the figure performed poorly at retail.

The Biker Scout has been a highly available figure since its first appearance in 2006. While the version being released in wave 1 and carried forward into wave 2 is the upgraded tooling that came with Toys R Us exclusive Speeder Bike, it’s not going to justify a large collector re-investment. Additionally, the 2007 Saga Legends release reached peg warmer status. It’s supremely frustrating that a marginal upgrade such as this Biker Scout gets an excess of retail sunlight and a monumental upgrade such as the Imperial Navy Commander barely gets a cup of coffee at retail. I feel both the Biggs and Biker Scout are fine additions to the line-up, but not at the numbers they will ship in relation to other newer figures. One per case for each with no carry forward was the right level.

Having said all of this, I can hardly blame Hasbro for being unable to strike a good case ratio for the collector line. It’s not their fault that collectors pulled the line in a direction that made the figures poor play things for their core audience. They are a toy company. Undoubtedly the majority if not all of their market research goes towards kids and toy buying parents. Furthermore now that the lines have split, brick and mortar might even be the wrong channel for a collector line. Managing a niche line through the purveyors of peanut butter and cheap pants might simply be unrealistic.

If Hasbro wants the collector line to continue to be viable, they need better collector advocacy when choosing the case assortments (or they need to give a louder voice to the advocacy they currently have). I honestly feel the fans in the comment section of Jedi Temple Archives have a better pulse of what would make viable retail case assortments than what is coming out of Pawtucket. I’m not talking about figure selection. I simply mean that once the characters are selected for inclusion, deciding which ones should be one per case, which ones should be two per case and which ones should be carried forward. More than anything else, that single decision is at the heart of Hasbro’s retail woes since late 2010 when two figures almost single handedly choked the inventory pipeline.

Alternatively, Hasbro could give up the ghost of the brick and mortar retail as the vehicle for the collector line and switch to a strictly online model where competing for show room space isn’t such a factor in the success of the line. With the virtual show room of e-tail, one or two slower selling figures won’t doom the line. Even if an online collector line resulted in a higher price point, I wouldn’t mind. I would rather pay $12 to $15 for figure I definitely want than what 2012 forced me into where I was buying figures buy the case and paying $60 for figures that were worthless to me.

– Chris Swanski







This article comes from Jedi Temple Archives
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