On Reddit I came upon a photo of a toy shelf at – what seems to be (not confirmed) – Ollie’s and I want to share it here because it’s utterly hilarious.
And yes, this is anecdotal, do not take any of this too seriously, but still… click through for a chat about the state of Star Wars in 2024.
The anecdotal Reva toy shelf itself is just that, anecdotal, but at the same time maybe also symptomatic of a once enormously popular blockbuster franchise which seems to be at its nadir right now.
Whether you are one of the two dozen fans of The Acolyte or one of the many people who hated it – I believe no one can deny the show was an outright flop and ratings disaster on Disney+. For a show that cost – including marketing etc – close to $300 million. Even worse, it truly angered a non trivial number of passionate and longtime Star Wars fans with its morally dubious approach to Star Wars and its blatant disregard of the core philosophies of Star Wars – and that is before we talk about the scripts or the acting even.
Hasbro posts one record low after another for its partner brands segment. And while numbers for Star Wars (or Marvel) are unknown to us the combined revenue of all the partner brands is pitiful, which means each individual brand must also perform quite pitiful. Even if you account for licenses Hasbro got rid of, by their own admission only 50% of the revenue decline can be attributed to exited licenses.
Then there’s the embarrassing – for Kathleen Kennedy – comedy of errors that is yet another of her movies she announced. The Rey movie more and more feels like yet another mirage on the horizon. They still don’t have a script after 18 months (this after firing the first writing team) and the movie is now – according to unverified reports – on indefinite hold even. The Taika Waititi movie is officially dead now. Lando, allegedly a movie project after the show was axed while still in development, is in development hell and will never see the light of day. And no one has said even one word about the James Mangold movie about the first Jedi.
Let’s also not forget how a Vintage Collection HasLab limped across the finish line, not even unlocking all tiers… only to be blown out of the water by a GI Joe Haslab that was about a 6 inch scale vehicle of all things a short time later. And we should remember the – unproven – rumors that Hasbro wants to exit the Star Wars license, because it’s not worth it anymore for them.
And then the big triple A blockbuster game Star Wars Outlaws turned out to be a total dud. In its first month after release Ubisoft just sold about one million copies of the game. Which is an outright disaster. It is generally believed that this abysmal performance ultimately led Ubisoft to delay Assassin’s Creed Shadows for several months, because a perfect one two punch of two failed games in quick succession could be too much for the troubled French video game publisher.
So where are we now?
Star Wars on Disney+ is no longer a juggernaut. That The Acolyte is, until now at least, still the most successful launch of an original series on Disney+ in 2024 speaks volumes about the kind of content Disney puts on the platform. And yes, Agatha All Along has even worse ratings than The Acolyte, as expected. But that franchise at least had Deadpool & Wolverine in cinemas.
Star Wars feels like a franchise that is dead in the water, treading water, hoping not to drown and hectically scrambling, trying to reach the shore again.
Star Wars has failed on all fronts in 2024. Toy sales, for decades the actual bread and butter of the franchise, are circling the drain. The two (three actually) shows in 2024 released thus far, The Bad Batch and The Acolyte, failed to get an audience and in the case of The Acolyte even outright angered many fans. The AAA Star Wars video game, the first proper single player open world Star Wars game ever, has failed commercially. And the chances of Skeleton Crew having even worse ratings than The Acolyte on Disney+ are non zero.
Oh, and about that third show I was talking about… if you look closely at the photo you’ll see toys for Young Jedi Adventures rotting at the bottom. If you do not even remember this is a thing you know why it’s yet another failure. This got a second season (animation usually gets more than one season greenlit way in advance) and the first batch of season 2 episodes, eleven episodes in total, were dumped on Disney+ on August 14th, just two months ago. The fact you may not even know this speaks volumes. Now a show aimed at preschool kids is not expected to do The Mandalorian numbers, yet again Bluey manages to be super popular on Disney+ regardless. That eleven episodes of Young Jedi Adventures in total did not manage to enter the top 10 streaming charts is yet another symptom. I would not be surprised if season 2 is also the last season. Chris Cocks famously said Hasbro is “bullish” about the show and thus it will get its own toyline. Which is now rotting at the bottom of a shelf where Reva is the star. Ok, this is anecdotal of course, but we all know how bad the revenue for partner brands is so it’s reasonable to assume the toyline for Young Jedi Adventures is a flop as well.
So in some ways the anecdotal Reva photo, languishing on pegs because no one wants this, may be more symptomatic after all.
The last best hope for Star Wars is The Mandalorian. So many things hinge on the movie set for a May 2026 release date. Should this movie underperform or maybe even flop – and here I would say that any box office result below $500 million would be a disaster and if it were in the $300 million region it would be an epic disaster even – it might sink Star Wars for good. On the flip side if it succeeds, and manages to make about $1 billion it could also put Star Wars back on track again. Unless, of course, that Rey movie will get made after all.
The bad thing is that things can only get better in 2026. And it’s still 2024. And on Disney+ it’s even worse. With how long things take these days it will be 2027 before there is a chance of getting a truly popular Star Wars show on Disney+ again. And by “popular” I mean something that is at least in the region of Obi-Wan Kenobi and ideally can come close to The Mandalorian numbers. Based on what we know Andor will be the only show in 2025. Ahsoka begins filming next year, which makes a 2026 release very likely. And given that the number of releases will be greatly reduced it seems Andor and Ahsoka are indeed the only things we’ll get in the next two years. So any potential Cal Kestis series or a second season of Obi-Wan Kenobi can be released in 2027 at the earliest. Three long years from now.
This is a very long and miserable dry spell. Especially for licensees who all depend on popular new content to drive sales.
But right now, right here, all things Star Wars in 2024 have flopped. Utterly. Completely. Toys, shows, games… nothing works anymore. And this is just sad. But it doesn’t need to be the end of course. There’s always a silver lining. But the big question is if The Mandalorian movie can revitalize the franchise once more, after the show single handedly yanked Star Wars away from the abyss in 2019 and merchandise sales boomed for about two years.
At this point only one thing could maybe help turn things around: if Disney announced a complete change of leadership and several other key positions at Lucasfilm, hired competent people who put entertainment first and actually think about the fans and presented fans with at least an outline of the changes and upcoming shows and movies aimed to fix things. Lucasfilm and Disney must abandon the sequels. Any attempt to somehow fix this mess will not succeed. We do not need shows or movies that tell us how we got from A to B when B is an utter disaster, filling in the blanks won’t make “B” any better. Luke will still be a titty milk drinking suicidal recluse, Leia will still die just like that, a Palpatine will still win and steal the Skywalker name, Han will still be a dead beat loser dad who gets stabbed to death by his emo son. And so on. Nothing in the universe can fix this. Only a clean slate could help. Start fresh. Or else 2024 may not be the nadir of Star Wars after all. Things can and will hopefully get better… but they can also get even worse.
Category: General News
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