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The Cantina HasLab Day 25

We are on the finishing straight for the Cantina HasLab! Only seven more days to go! How do things look? Funding seems to be 100% secure at this point. The big question was and is how many tiers may get unlocked and how the 4th of July holidays in the US may impact backer numbers. Click through for all the details!

Stay on target!

Since the Cantina HasLab is so much shorter I looked at numbers 7 days before deadline, instead of day 25 for each of the campaigns. So where are we now?

Click to enlarge

The Cantina added a very good 1,071 backers in the past 7 days. However, this is still just about 56% of what the Ghost had 7 days before its deadline. And with that the gap between the two HasLabs only marginally decreased since week 1. The Ghost simply had more time to gain backers.

But looking at just the second to last week the Cantina outperformed the Ghost, the Ghost added 878 backers compared to the Cantina’s 1,071. However, the Ghost had long been funded, whereas the Cantina still needs to reach this important milestone.

So what are the possible scenarios?

In the following 6 days the Ghost added 2,835 backers. Now the question is what the Cantina’s numbers will be before the boost on the last day. Let’s say the Cantina will also outperform the Ghost in the next 6 days and can add something like 3,400 backers. This would fund the Cantina before the deadline and it would enter its final day with approx. 10,200 backers. Depending on how eager collectors are this could mean tier #3 may be in reach after all.

However, if the 4th of July holidays negatively impact numbers the Cantina may very well enter its last day with substantially fewer backers. The Ghost had several very good days in its last week before the final day rush. On its penultimate day it added more than 1,200 backers alone. It remains to be seen if the Cantina can actually match that. I am somewhat doubtful about that.

Also, the Cantina currently has 56% of the Ghost’s numbers, if this percentage will not significantly change then the Cantina would end up with ca. 13k backers. Short of tier #2. In fact, the Cantina must reach 78.1% of the Ghost’s numbers to unlock tier #3. Given that we are currently at 56% of the Ghost’s numbers this seems very ambitious. But since this campaign is so much shorter different rules may apply here and maybe the last week is as good or even better than the Ghost’s. But even with the Ghost’s final week numbers, 9,662, the Cantina would only reach tier #2 and fall short of tier #3.

My best guess is that tier #3 is out of reach. Tier #1 is almost a certainty and tier #2 needs another 7,193 backers or 75% of the Ghost’s final week numbers. Which could be do-able. So tier #2 is absolutely a possibility. In my opinion the most likely outcome is the Cantina with tier #1 as a bonus.

One thing is certain though, the Cantina will get funded, there is extremely little doubt about that now. But whether or not tiers #2 and #3 are in reach is unknown. There are too many uncertainties because of the shorter campaign duration and the upcoming holidays.

I will post an update on Friday this time, July 5th, this will tell us how the holidays in the US may affect the HasLab. And it should be a bit more clearer by then which tiers are in reach.

 

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