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Quick Update On The Rise Of Skywalker Box Office [UPDATED]

I want to provide a quick update on The Rise of Skywalker box office! Click through for the very latest numbers and a realistic outlook on things!

Updated with the most recent weekend numbers for domestic and worldwide! The box office race between The Rise of Skywalker and The Last Jedi is decided!

The Rise of Skywalker They Fly Now

They fly now?

UPDATE: The weekend estimate for The Rise of Skywalker is $72 million! That is just at the lower end of predicted weekend box office. Previous estimates by Deadline etc were vastly inaccurate (as usual, trades like Deadline or Forbes are usually very inaccurate when they try to predict box office).
$72 million is a good result. The Rise of Skywalker has a 59.4% drop off, which is decent for a modern blockbuster movie (anything below 60% is decent). However, the Friday results still had some holiday boost, thus Saturday numbers, usually the best day of the week, dropped off by more than 14% compared to Friday. The Last Jedi made $71.6 million on its 2nd weekend without any holiday boost, it even had the disadvantage of having December 24th (the slowest day of the entire holiday period) to fall on a Sunday. So thanks to the calendar in 2019 TROS performs on par this weekend, but remember, the Friday numbers for TROS saw some boost from the Christmas holidays. The Rise of Skywalker is now $6.4 million behind The Last Jedi, but this gap will now greatly increase in the next week, by a very large number even.

Domestic box office is now $361.8 million, worldwide box office is $724.8 million.

Domestic box office accounts for 49.9% of total box office, which is still a very high percentage and only somewhat better than Rogue One’s domestic box office share. A typical blockbuster only has about 30-35% domestic box office.

These numbers mean the race is decided! The Rise of Skywalker will not beat The Last Jedi’s box office from 2017. The Last Jedi had its Christmas holiday boost only in week 2 and made $168 million over the holidays alone. Thus the gap will now greatly increase over the next few days.

Actually, Rogue One is the movie to beat now! But whether or not The Rise of Skywalker will actually beat Rogue One is still undecided. Rogue One had its holiday boost also in week 2 and had some really strong legs in the new year and even outperformed The Last Jedi! Rogue One continued to make another $245 million after its 2nd weekend (The Last Jedi $252 million). The Rise of Skywalker needs to make another $170.4 million to beat Rogue One (unadjusted numbers). The Rise of Skywalker however, is much more frontloaded because of the very early holiday boost. The movie will now begin to fade away, there will be no boost in the coming week, so it may be a close call here.

It’s also not decided if The Rise of Skywalker can beat The Lion King remake, Lion King made $543 million domestic. But it will definitely be the number 2 or 3  movie of 2019 at the domestic box office. Worldwide the movie could perform worse than Captain Marvel even, which made $1.13 billion. That would make The Rise of Skywalker the 6th highest grossing movie worldwide in 2019. Unless it barely makes 1 billion, then Toy Story 4 may beat it too. But it’s too early to determine that.

We will know more about that after weekend 3!

All in all The Rise of Skywalker will be much closer to Rogue One’s box office than The Last Jedi’s. This much is already clear now. Which is a decent result, but Disney will probably consider it a disappointment that the finale of the sequel trilogy and Skywalker Saga made less than The Last Jedi and may barely beat Rogue One at the domestic box office and may even perform worse than Captain Marvel worldwide.

 

And now the original article from Saturday:

The Rise of Skywalker will be yet another hit movie for Disney. It took the movie 8 days to cross the 300 million mark at the domestic box office, just like The Last Jedi two years ago. The Force Awakens managed the same feat on day 5. Avengers Endgame, the current king, on day 3 already. But reaching that goal on day 8 is a very strong performance!
Current domestic box office, including Friday numbers, is $316 million, which is only 5 million behind The Last Jedi (compared to its box office on day 8 of domestic release), so The Rise of Skywalker made up a lot of lost ground from the somewhat underwhelming opening weekend.

But despite what websites like Deadline or Movieweb try to tell you it’s not ALL roses for the movie when you look at the most recent numbers and trends.

Early estimates for Saturday box office see a rare drop off, movies usually have their strongest day of the week on Saturday, but early estimates now say that The Rise of Skywalker could see a drop by more than $2 million, compared to Friday and might only make $24 million on Saturday. Which would be $5 million behind what The Last Jedi made on its second Saturday (day 9 of release).

The previous, extremely optimistic 2nd weekend estimates of $90 million are already obsolete, the latest estimate says that the movie may make something around $75 million on its second weekend, the range is anything between $70-$80 million, with things trending towards the lower end, $70 million is not completely unrealistic here, which is still a good result, but may not be enough to beat The Last Jedi. The Rise of Skywalker needs to make $71.1 million this weekend to avoid a rather high drop off from opening weekend of 60%. Which would still be a lot better than the very high 67.8% drop off The Last Jedi had, but it came from a much higher opening weekend.

If you want The Rise of Skywalker to beat The Last Jedi at the box office things don’t look too bright actually. The Rise of Skywalker has used up its Christmas holiday boost, while The Last Jedi got its boost only in week 2 of its release and while The Rise of Skywalker may perhaps overtake The Last Jedi’s box office this weekend (for this to happen the movie needs to make at least $76.9 million this weekend!) The Last Jedi will take the lead again next week when The Rise of Skywalker no longer benefits from the Christmas holidays and The Last Jedi Christmas holiday box office will be added, which was quite substantial.

It is still difficult to predict the final outcome, but chances are that The Last Jedi will most likely outperform The Rise of Skywalker in the US. Maybe not by much, but if the early weekend box office predictions hold, especially if the rare Saturday drop off actually happens, it could mean the movie is just about to lose steam now and may only lose more steam in the coming days.

Outside the US things don’t look as good as in the US for some reason.

As of now (latest numbers are from Friday, 27th) domestic box office accounts for a whopping 52.8% of total worldwide box office which is a very, very high number for most modern day blockbusters and nothing Hollywood studios usually want. A typical blockbuster these days can make about 70% of its money outside North America, some even come close to 80%. An R-rated genre movie like Joker made about 70% outside the US, a crowdpleaser like Endgame also made about 70% outside the US.

The only Star Wars movie to have a larger domestic box office share than The Rise of Skywalker is Solo, which made 54.4% of its money in the US, Rogue One made 50.4% in the US.

If domestic box office share remains so high, with almost 53%, the movie needs to make at least $558 million domestic to beat Rogue One at the worldwide box office. This seems very likely! Beating The Last Jedi worldwide seems impossible however, The Rise of Skywalker would need to make $703.6 million domestic to beat The Last Jedi’s worldwide box office IF the international domestic box office share doesn’t improve.
It’s impossible for the movie to reach $700 million in the US. It would need to have extraordinary staying power for that, which is almost unheard of in the modern era of cinema.

The only hope is that audiences in Europe will flock to the movie on the first weekend after the Christmas holidays for international box office to rise significantly, if not then worldwide box office could be somewhat underwhelming for the finale of the sequel trilogy and Skywalker Saga. Making about $200 million less than The Last Jedi two years ago.
Now making $1.1 billion worldwide is a very good result, but that would still barely beat Rogue One worldwide and fall significantly behind The Last Jedi. Disney will have to look into that. Star Wars has to broaden its global appeal. It’s already bad for the Mouse House when Asia ignores the franchise, but if the legacy markets begin to stumble they have to examine what is happening. Maybe an almost complete lack of retail presence for current Star Wars toys is one factor here in Europe. I saw Frozen II merchandise in several places, but nothing for Star Wars.

I will report box office numbers again after weekend 3, which is the earliest time it makes sense. By then we should know for sure where things are headed, whether or not The Rise of Skywalker can outperform The Last Jedi in the US and how it fares outside the US.

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