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The Cinemascore for Solo: A Star Wars Story

Cinemascore has released their score for Solo: A Star Wars Story. And it’s an “A-” What that means for Solo’s box office results? Click through to find out more!

Solo Cinemascore


So what does that “A-” score mean? It sure looks good! But another article here on JTA shed some light on Cinemascore. The scores are not so much about audience satisfaction, but mostly about your chance of winning at the box office.

I analyzed several hundred movies and looked at the relationship between Cinemascore and box office. And then I calculated the probabilities.

I will once more show you the table:

Cinemascore and probability at box office success

Cinemascore and final box office probability

Click for a larger version!

So what does “A-” mean? It means Solo will most likely not be a huge box office success, compared to other Star Wars movies.

  • there’s a 20% chance that Solo will make something between $150-$200 million
  • a 16% chance that Solo will end up somewhere between $200-$300 million
  • and only a 5% chance that Solo will make more than $300 million domestic

Early numbers for Solo already show that earlier box office projections were much too optimistic. Disney lowered their own estimates for the weekend considerably after Thursday screenings.

Disney and Lucasfilm should prepare for the first real disappointment at the box office. Unless Solo is one of the very, very few movies that make more than $400 million despite an “A-” score.

There’s another huge blockbuster that had an “A-” recently. Justice League. Its final domestic box office? $229 million. Which is already in the upper regions for an “A-” movie.

We’ll have to see how and if Lucasfilm will react and if any plans will change. I think it’s time for Lucasfilm to seriously rethink their strategy (frequency of movies, directors attached to certain projects) and to look once more very closely at the criticism and controversy surrounding The Last Jedi. The fandom has not been the same ever since. Ignoring that or dismissing it is probably not the right strategy here.

It’s a shame that Solo, a fun and entertaining movie, will most likely be the first Disney Star Wars movie not to be a real success. But then again, Solo is a movie almost no one really asked for. It’s not that fan feedback wasn’t there from the day the movie was announced.


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